Foreign Office Advised Regarding Military Action to Topple Robert Mugabe

Recently released papers show that the UK's diplomatic corps advised against British military action to overthrow the then Zimbabwean president, Robert Mugabe, in 2004, advising it was not considered a "serious option".

Government Documents Reveal Deliberations on Handling a "Remarkably Robust" Dictator

Policy papers from Tony Blair's government indicate officials considered options on how best to deal with the "depressingly healthy" 80-year-old leader, who refused to step down as the country descended into violence and economic chaos.

Following Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK participated in a US-led coalition to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, No 10 asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to produce potential options.

Isolation Strategy Deemed Ineffective

Officials agreed that the UK's policy of isolating Mugabe and forging an international agreement for change was not working, having failed to secure support from influential African states, notably the then South African president, Thabo Mbeki.

Courses considered in the documents included:

• "Attempt to remove Mugabe by force";
• "Go for tougher UK measures" such as freezing assets and shuttering the UK embassy; or
• "Re-engage", the approach supported by the then departing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"We know from conflicts abroad that altering a government and/or its bad policies is almost impossible from the outside."

The FCO paper dismissed military action as not a "realistic option," and warned that "The only nation for leading such a military operation is the UK. No one else (even the US) would be willing to do so".

Cautionary Notes of Heavy Casualties and Legal Hurdles

It warned that military involvement would cause heavy casualties and have "serious consequences" for UK nationals in Zimbabwe.

"Short of a major humanitarian and political catastrophe – resulting in widespread bloodshed, significant exodus of refugees, and instability in the region – we assess that no African state would support any attempts to remove Mugabe by force."

The paper continues: "Nor do we judge that any other European, Commonwealth or western partner (including the US) would sanction or join military intervention. And there would be no jurisdictional basis for doing so, without an authorising Security Council Resolution, which we would fail to obtain."

Playing the Longer Game Recommended

Blair's foreign policy adviser, Laurie Lee, warned him that Zimbabwe "could become a significant obstacle" to his plan to use the UK's leadership of the G8 to make 2005 "a pivotal year for Africa". Lee concluded that as military action had been ruled out, "it is likely necessary that we must adopt a long-term strategy" and re-engage with Mugabe.

Blair seemed to concur, writing: "We must devise a way of revealing the lies and malpractice of Mugabe and Zanu-PF up to this election and then subsequently, we could try to re-engage on the basis of a firm agreement."

The then outgoing ambassador, in his valedictory telegram, had advocated cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he understood the Prime Minister "might shudder at the thought given all that Mugabe has said and done".

The Zimbabwean leader was finally deposed in a 2017 coup, aged 93. Previous claims that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressure Thabo Mbeki into joining a armed alliance to overthrow Mugabe were vehemently rejected by the former UK premier.