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Voting has commenced for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, although experts believe the party stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise top result and established a four-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is projected to win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it secured 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the previous government in June amid disagreements concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a campaign dominated by topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with several experiencing significant losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the vote yields a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant division ensures that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from power. But, critics and analysts say that first place does not guarantee government participation and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations could take months, analysts indicate that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is anticipated soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.