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Wealthy entrepreneur Andrej Babis has emerged victorious in the Czech Republic's legislative polls, though his populist ANO faction did not secure an overall majority, per preliminary results.

Under current projections, ANO garnered nearly 35% of the vote, securing them 81 seats in the 200-seat lower house.

Babis – who previously served as the head of government from 2017 to 2021 – is anticipated to get the call to guide discussions on establishing a fresh alliance.

Election Outcome Brings Up Key Questions

This election cycle brought no big surprises, but creates many questions.

Very few believed the current centre-right coalition would endure.

Almost no one disputed that Babis would lead the pack.

Not many analysts anticipated he would secure adequate positions to lead independently.

All these forecasts – supported by every opinion survey during the last 24 months – have been realized.

This is the simple part. Yet what comes next?

Partnership Discussions Set to Begin

Babis will initiate discussions immediately – perhaps potentially later today – with the two lesser conservative EU-skeptic parties that managed to cross the 5% threshold: the anti-Green Deal Motorists for Themselves, and the anti-immigrant Liberty and Direct Democracy (SPD) group, led by Czech-Japanese entrepreneur Tomio Okamura.

It appears Babis will need an alliance with both to establish a ruling coalition.

Common Ground with the Motorists Party

ANO will share most similarities with the Drivers' party. The pair currently sit in the same European Parliament group – the "sovereignty-supporting" Patriots for Europe, which Babis established in collaboration with Hungary's Viktor Orban and the Austrian politician Herbert Kickl the previous year.

ANO echoes the Drivers' doubts about the European Union's emission goals, and vows to adjust or dismiss them entirely.

The two factions are firmly opposed to domestic residents shouldering a greater financial burden for green energy, and the two contest the European Union's ban on the marketing new combustion engine automobiles after 2035.

Likely Hurdles with the SPD Party

Interactions with the SPD may be more challenging.

To begin with, SPD contested this political contest in a formal alliance with several marginal parties on the extreme right, indicating they need to give up some of their seats to them.

And Okamura could be without absolute command over the representatives in his bloc – usually a problematic factor in coalition politics.

Babis has firmly declined permitting a public vote on participation in the European Union or NATO – a central policy goal for the SPD.

Political Messaging

The head of ANO adopted criticism of Ukraine in the final days of the political race, attacking the moderate-right leadership for giving "Czech mothers nothing, and Ukrainians everything".

But Okamura's push for Ukrainian refugees to be sent back collectively will likely be disregarded.

Administration Choices

In the end Babis might choose to govern independently, in a minority administration backed by the Motorists and the SPD.