What Makes The Current US Shutdown Different (and More Intractable)?
Shutdowns are a repeat feature in American political life – but the current situation appears particularly intractable because of shifting political forces along with deep-seated animosity between both major parties.
Certain federal operations are temporarily suspended, with approximately 750,000 employees are expected to be put on unpaid leave as both political parties remain unable to reach consensus on a spending bill.
Votes aimed at ending the deadlock continue to fall short, and it is hard to see a clear resolution path this time because both parties – as well as the nation's leader – can see some merit in digging in.
Here are the four ways in which this shutdown distinct currently.
1. For Democrats, it's about Trump – not just healthcare
The Democratic base have insisted for months that their party more forcefully fights the current presidency. Well now Democratic leaders have an opportunity to demonstrate their responsiveness.
Earlier this year, Senate leader was fiercely criticised for helping pass GOP budget legislation thus preventing a government closure in the spring. This time he's holding firm.
This presents an opportunity for the Democratic party to show their ability to reclaim some control from a presidency pursuing its agenda assertively with determined action.
Refusing to back the GOP budget proposal carries electoral dangers that the wider public may become impatient with prolonged negotiations and impacts accumulate.
The Democrats are leveraging the budget standoff to highlight concerns about expiring health insurance subsidies and Republican-approved federal health program reductions for the poor, which are both unpopular.
They are also trying to curtail executive utilization of presidential authority to cancel or delay funding approved by Congress, which he has done with foreign aid and various federal programs.
2. For Republicans, it's an opportunity
The President along with a senior aide have openly indicated their perspective that they smell a chance to advance further the cutbacks in government employment implemented during in the Republican's second presidency so far.
The President himself stated recently that the government closure provided him with a "unique chance", adding he intended to cut "opposition-supported departments".
Administration officials said it would be left with the "unenviable task" of mass lay-offs to maintain critical federal operations should the impasse persist. The Press Secretary said this was just "budgetary responsibility".
The extent of possible job cuts remains unclear, though administration officials have been consulting with federal budget authorities, or OMB, under the leadership of the key official.
The administration's financial chief has already announced the suspension of federal funding for Democratic-run parts the opposition party, such as NYC and Illinois' largest city.
3. There's little trust on either side
While previous shutdowns typically involved extended negotiations among political opponents aimed at restoring government services running again, currently there seems minimal cooperative willingness for compromise presently.
Instead, there is rancour. The bad blood continued over the weekend, with Republicans and Democrats exchanging accusations for causing the impasse.
The legislative leader from the majority party, accused Democrats with insufficient commitment about negotiating, and maintaining positions over a deal "for electoral protection".
Simultaneously, the Senate leader levelled the same accusation at the other side, saying that a Republican promise regarding health funding talks after operations resume cannot be trusted.
The President himself has escalated tensions through sharing a computer-created controversial depiction featuring the opposition leader and the top Democrat opposition figure, in which the legislator is depicted with a large Mexican-style sombrero and facial hair.
The representative with party colleagues called this racist, a characterization rejected by the Vice-President.
Fourth, The American Economy is fragile
Analysts expect approximately two-fifths of government employees – over 800,000 workers – to be put on unpaid leave as a result of the government closure.
That will depress spending – with broader economic consequences, as environmental permitting, delayed intellectual property processing, interrupted vendor payments and other kinds of government activity tied to business cease functioning.
The closure additionally introduces new uncertainty into an economy currently experiencing disruption from multiple factors including tariffs, earlier cuts to government spending, immigration raids and artificial intelligence.
Analysts estimate potential reduction of as much as 0.2 percentage points from national economic expansion weekly during the closure.
However, economic activity generally rebounds the majority of interrupted operations after a shutdown ends, similar to recovery patterns after major environmental events.
This might explain partially why financial markets has appeared largely unfazed to the ongoing impasse.
On the other hand, experts indicate should administration officials implement his threat of mass firings, economic harm might become more long-lasting.